Hydrological analysis as a technical tool to support strategic and economic development: A case study of Lake Navaisha, Kenya

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Abstract
Effective integrated water resources management requires reliable estimation of an overall basin water budget and of hydrologic fluctuations between groundwater and surface‐water resources. Seasonal variability of groundwater‐surface water exchange fluxes impacts on the water balance. The long term lake water balance was calculated by Modflow using the stage‐volume rating curve of Lake Package LAK3. The long term average storage volume change is 8.4 × 108 m3/month. The lake water balances suggests that the lake is not in equilibrium with the inflow and outflow terms. Using field abstraction data analysis and model simulation, the combined volume of lake‐groundwater used for industrial abstraction since the last three decades was estimated. This requires an average abstraction amount of 7.0 × 106 m3/month with a long term trend of abstraction ratio 30% (groundwater) and 70% (lake water) since 1980. The amount resulted in a lake which might have been 4.8 m higher than was observed in the last stress period (2010).A long term regional groundwater budget is calculated reflecting all water flow in to and out of the regional aquifer. The model water balance suggests that lake Navaisha basin is in equilibrium with a net outflow about 1% greater than the inflow over the calibrated period of time (1932–2010). The regional model is best used for broad‐scale predictions and can be used to provide a general sense of groundwater to surface water and groundwater to groundwater impacts in the basin. A basin wide water resource management strategy can be designed by integrating the lake/wetland within the regional groundwater model to increase the level of sustainable production and good stewardship in Lake Navaisha. Such hydrological analysis is crucial in making the model serve as simulator of the response of lake stage to hydraulic stresses applied to the aquifer and variation in climatic condition.

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