Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling
Open Access
Abstract
The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the US economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a decline in the 10-year averaged WS since 2013 before starting to increase around 2020. Comparison between this WS prediction and the WS projection published in a 2012 government report (derived from climate models) reveals a widened imbalance between supply and demand by 2020, a tendency that is confirmed by updated WS observation. Such information could aid in management decision-making in the face of near-future water shortages.Keywords
All Related Versions
This publication has 29 references indexed in Scilit:
- On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. MidwestInternational Journal of Climatology, 2018
- Cross-Basin Decadal Climate Regime Connecting the Colorado River with the Great Salt LakeJournal of Hydrometeorology, 2018
- The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the futureWater Resources Research, 2017
- Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake levelJournal of Hydrology, 2015
- Incorporation of Pacific SSTs in a Time Series Model toward a Longer-Term Forecast for the Great Salt Lake ElevationJournal of Hydrometeorology, 2011
- Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado RiverGeophysical Research Letters, 2010
- Coherence between the Great Salt Lake Level and the Pacific Quasi-Decadal OscillationJournal of Climate, 2010
- When will Lake Mead go dry?Water Resources Research, 2008
- Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basinGeophysical Research Letters, 2007
- The Great Salt Lake: A Barometer of Low‐Frequency Climatic VariabilityWater Resources Research, 1995