Unexpected Predictors of Mortality During a DENV-3 Outbreak in Western Mexico: Seizures, Polyserositis, and Renal Dysfunction Without Severe Thrombocytopenia

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Abstract
Dengue mortality has traditionally been associated with severe thrombocytopenia and hemorrhagic complications. However, during 2024, dengue virus serotype 3 (DENV-3) increased significantly in western Mexico, leading to the emergence of a distinct clinical pattern. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized dengue patients at the General Hospital of Colima (January–August 2024). Clinical features, laboratory parameters, and outcomes were compared between survivors and non-survivors. Among 201 hospitalized patients, 6 (3.0%) died. All deceased patients presented with generalized seizures, polyserositis (pleural effusion and/or ascites), and required mechanical ventilation. Contrary to classical patterns, they did not have severe thrombocytopenia. Instead, they showed significantly higher white blood cell counts and notably increased levels of serum urea and BUN, suggesting early renal impairment. ROC analysis indicated that BUN (AUC 0.904) and urea (AUC 0.906) were good to excellent discriminators of mortality. During 2024, with an increase in DENV-3 circulation, mortality was associated with neurological and systemic complications, including seizures and polyserositis, as well as biochemical evidence of renal dysfunction—but not with severe thrombocytopenia. These findings challenge current paradigms and highlight the need for early recognition of atypical clinical patterns.

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