Predictive control of residential HVAC and its impact on the grid. Part II: simulation studies of residential HVAC as a supply following resource

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Abstract
This paper introduces a methodology, using model predictive control, for shaping the electric demand of residential distribution feeder. The methods are designed to result in a paradigm shift from generation that follows load to load that follows supply. First, a reference demand curve, obtained from “smoothing” a base case demand profile, is proposed. Then, in order to better match the availability of renewable energy resources, the reference demand curve is modified to consider residential rooftop photovoltaic systems and utility scale wind generation. A simulation framework introduced in a companion paper is employed. Simulation results suggest that the active load shaping methodology is very effective at providing demand flexibility at time scales shorter than two or three hours. At longer time scales, flexibility is limited by the thermal storage effectiveness of the residential building envelope, and to a large extent, the amount of load being shifted relative to total active cooling demand.

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