A Hybrid Mechanistic–AI Framework for Degradation-Aware Energy Analysis and Maintenance-Oriented Decision Support in Bioethanol Production

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Abstract
Bioethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass remains energy-intensive, and its energy performance can be affected by equipment degradation, utility disturbances, and operating variability. This study developed a degradation-aware mechanistic–AI framework for energy forecasting, anomaly detection, maintenance-oriented interpretation, and multi-objective optimization in bioethanol production under limited-data conditions. Reduced-order energy models were formulated for pretreatment, hydrolysis–fermentation, and ethanol purification. Equipment deterioration was represented through heat-transfer fouling, column-efficiency decline, and pump-efficiency decay. Condition-dependent modifiers were introduced to account for load-related degradation and intervention-related partial recovery. Benchmark-constrained synthetic time-series datasets were generated under baseline, accelerated-degradation, condition-dependent, stress, and data-quality perturbation scenarios. Empirical baselines and machine-learning models were compared for specific energy consumption prediction, with uncertainty reported using confidence intervals. The long short-term memory model achieved the lowest prediction errors under both baseline and stress conditions. Robustness testing showed that sensor drift, missing values, and outliers increased forecasting and anomaly-detection uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis identified degradation coefficients, seasonal disturbance, and anomaly-threshold selection as influential factors. Multi-objective optimization revealed trade-offs among specific energy consumption, ethanol purity, and equipment-health penalty. The proposed framework should be interpreted as a benchmarked methodological platform rather than a plant-validated maintenance or control system. Plant-specific deployment requires calibration with operating records, maintenance logs, cleaning records, and sensor-quality assessment.
Funding Information
  • Texas Woman's University

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