Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Resilience and Adaptive Cycle Categories Under Multi-Scenario Urbanization: Evidence from the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration

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Abstract
Urban agglomerations are complex adaptive social–ecological systems, and understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of landscape ecological resilience is important for their sustainable management. This study extended the previously developed Risk–Potential–Connectivity (RPC) framework for the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration (CZXUA) by identifying adaptive cycle categories at the grid scale using Local Moran’s I and explicit classification rules. Previously generated SD–PLUS land use projections were used to evaluate future changes in the RPC dimensions, integrated resilience, and adaptive cycle composition. (1) From 2000 to 2020, mean landscape ecological resilience decreased from 0.3642 to 0.3345, representing a net decline of 8.15%. Global Moran’s I increased from 0.746 to 0.787, indicating stronger spatial clustering. The spatial pattern remained relatively stable, with higher resilience in peripheral ecological areas, lower resilience in urban cores, and a persistent northwest–southeast orientation. (2) Adaptive cycle composition changed only moderately. The conservation (K) category accounted for more than 45% of the study area, while the release (Ω) category accounted for approximately 19% and was concentrated mainly in urban cores. The exploitation (r) category declined after 2010, whereas the smaller reorganization (α) and transitional (t) categories were more sensitive to classification settings. (3) Using previously generated land use projections as scenario inputs, future RPC responses differed clearly among scenarios. SSP126 maintained more intact ecological patches, relatively stable connectivity, and the smallest resilience change, with increases in r and K. SSP245 showed the greatest connectivity decline, expansion of areas with declining resilience, a reduction in r, and increases in Ω and α. SSP585 produced the highest landscape ecological risk, the largest declines in ecological potential and integrated resilience, reductions in r and K, and increases in α and t. These conditional results indicate that limiting construction land expansion, protecting ecological land, and maintaining ecological connectivity may reduce resilience losses under future urban development. The RPC adaptive cycle framework can support the identification of priorities for ecological protection, restoration, connectivity enhancement, and risk reduction.
Funding Information
  • Key Disciplines of the State Forestry Administration of China (No. 21 of Forest Ren Fa, 2016)
  • the Hunan Province “Double First-Class” Cultivation discipline of China (No. 469 of Xiang Jiao Tong, 2018)
  • National Long-term Research Base for Landscape Architecture in Qingxiu Mountain, Guangxi Nanning (No. 96 of Forestry Science and Technology Development, 2021)
  • Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province (CX20240712)
  • Central South University of Forestry and Technology 2024 Graduate Student Science and Technology Innovation Fund (2024CX01009)
  • Specialized Urban Renewal and Reconstruction Design (cscec5b-2023-02-14)

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