The Metacognitive Sensitivity of Verbal Expressions of Confidence in a Perceptual Decision
Preprint
Abstract
We study how confidence in perceptual decisions depends on whether it is communicated verbally (e.g., “very likely”) or numerically (e.g., “80% certainty”). We find that verbal expressions more reliably distinguish correct from incorrect choices than numerical reports, challenging the common assumption that numerical probabilities provide more precise representations of uncertainty. Additionally, in a dyadic decision-making task in which participants can revise their initial reports based on a partner’s choice and expressed confidence, verbal and numerical reports are equally effective in supporting accurate revisions of initial judgments. Together, these results underscore the effectiveness of verbal expressions as a means of conveying decision confidence.Keywords
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