Multivariate statistical approach and machine learning for the evaluation of biogeographical ancestry inference in the forensic field

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Abstract
The biogeographical ancestry (BGA) of a trace or a person/skeleton refers to the component of ethnicity, constituted of biological and cultural elements, that is biologically determined. Nowadays, many individuals are interested in exploring their genealogy, and the capability to distinguish biogeographic information about population groups and subgroups via DNA analysis plays an essential role in several fields such as in forensics. In fact, for investigative and intelligence purposes, it is beneficial to inference the biogeographical origins of perpetrators of crimes or victims of unsolved cold cases when no reference profile from perpetrators or database hits for comparative purposes are available. Current approaches for biogeographical ancestry estimation using SNPs data are usually based on PCA and Structure software. The present study provides an alternative method that involves multivariate data analysis and machine learning strategies to evaluate BGA discriminating power of unknown samples using different commercial panels. Starting from 1000 Genomes project, Simons Genome Diversity Project and Human Genome Diversity Project datasets involving African, American, Asian, European and Oceania individuals, and moving towards further and more geographically restricted populations, powerful multivariate techniques such as Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) and machine learning techniques such as XGBoost were employed, and their discriminating power was compared. PLS-DA method provided more robust classifications than XGBoost method, showing that the adopted approach might be an interesting tool for forensic experts to infer BGA information from the DNA profile of unknown individuals, but also highlighting that the commercial forensic panels could be inadequate to discriminate populations at intra-continental level.

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