Hybrid Conv1D–LSTM Modelling of Short-Term Reservoir Water-Level Dynamics for Scenario-Based Operational Analysis

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Abstract
Accurate representation of short-term reservoir water-level dynamics is essential for operational analysis and scenario-based assessment under prescribed inflow–outflow conditions. In many practical applications, physically based modelling is limited by incomplete process knowledge, unavailable boundary conditions, or insufficient temporal resolution of input data. This study presents a data-driven framework for hourly conditional simulation of reservoir water level based on a hybrid Conv1D–LSTM architecture. The model learns nonlinear relationships among hydraulic forcing, operational control, and system state from historical observations, and is evaluated in a recursive multi-step simulation (rollout) mode to reflect its intended use and capture error accumulation over time. A systematic analysis of input sequence length and activation function is performed to identify a robust model configuration. On the test set, the selected configuration (L=24, GELU) achieved RMSE = 0.1057 m, MAE = 0.0881 m, and R² = 0.972 in rollout evaluation. The proposed framework is designed for scenario-based simulation rather than one-step deterministic forecasting, enabling rapid operational screening of alternative inflow–outflow regimes. Unlike many previous studies that emphasize one-step predictive accuracy, this work explicitly assesses model stability in recursive multi-step simulation, which is more relevant for reservoir scenario analysis.
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