Early Prediction of Stroke Severity

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Abstract
Early predictors of functional outcome after stroke are necessary for better planning of treatment and care. We evaluated prospectively early clinical predictors of short-term functional outcome in a group of patients with ischemic cerebral infarction and explored whether the intensity of the acute-phase response provided further information concerning the short-term functional outcome. We evaluated a group of 208 ischemic stroke patients using the Mathew scale at entry. All patients had neuroimaging studies and routine blood tests, including erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), within 72 hours from clinical onset. At discharge, functional outcome was graded according to a Stroke Outcome Scale. Larger infarcts, more embolic infarcts, and fewer lacunar infarcts were observed in the poor-outcome group. Vascular risk factors, radiological findings not related to the index stroke, time to admission, and treatment were similar in the two outcome groups. Variables with statistically significant differences between outcome groups included the following: age > 65 years, female sex, admission Mathew score < 75, worsening at clinical presentation, infarct volume > 6 cm3, complicating infections, fasting glucose > 110 mg, nonfasting glucose > 130 mg, and elevated ESR. With stepwise logistic regression analysis, Mathew score on admission, infarct volume, mode of clinical presentation, and ESR remained in the predictive model of stroke outcome, with a sensitivity and specificity of 89.91% and 85.71%, respectively. After removing the computed tomographic information from the model the same variables remained, with a sensitivity and specificity of 83.05% and 94.29%, respectively. Infarct size and clinical severity on admission are the stronger predictors of short-term functional outcome. Mode of clinical presentation, clinical evolution during the first day of stroke, and ESR are also independent predictors of short-term stroke outcome. These findings might be indicative of an inadequate collateral profile and/or a more pronounced prothrombotic state.

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