Deciphering Shale Gas Production Dynamics: A Fractal Theory Approach

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Abstract
Shale gas production dynamics display strong heterogeneity and nonlinearity, posing challenges to conventional analytical methods. This study applies fractal theory to analyze long-term production data from 178 global shale gas fields by calculating Hurst exponent (H) and fractal dimension (D). Results show 60.7% of fields are suitable for fractal analysis, with H values of 0.64–0.92 and D values of 1.0–1.9, indicating significant long-term memory and structural complexity. Cluster analysis reveals two distinct production patterns: stable trend (13.0%) and fluctuating trend (87.0%). Key innovations include: (1) extending fractal theory from static reservoir characterization to dynamic production analysis; (2) establishing a fractal-based production classification system; and (3) defining applicability conditions for fractal analysis in shale gas evaluation. This study demonstrates fractal theory’s effectiveness as a quantitative tool for production dynamics analysis, EUR estimation, and development strategy optimization.
Funding Information
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (52174019)
  • National Science and Technology Major Project (2025ZD1406407, 2025ZD1405902, 2025ZD1407501)

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