Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II*

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Abstract
The article analyzes the cycles of total construction and its major sectors after adjustment for the varying growth trends of real expenditures. Fluctuations in GNP and business fixed investment serve as “reference cycles.” The findings elucidate the relationships between cycles in total construction and its components and between construction and GNP cycles. Special analyses are devoted to the movements of public versus private construction expenditures and to the “countercyclical” behavior of residential building. The paper shows increasing volatility of private construction over time and substantial inter‐sector differences in average volatility. Although public policies have a strong potential influence on the cyclical performance of construction, the complexities revealed in the study indicate severe problems in attempts to stabilize its output.

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