Direct and indirect contributions of energy consumption structure to carbon emission intensity

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Abstract
Purpose: Reductions in emissions intensity have been expressed in commitments of many countries’ intended nationally determined contribution. Energy structure adjustment is one of the main approaches to reduce carbon emissions. This paper aims to study the causal relationship between carbon emission intensity and energy consumption structure in China based on path analysis. Design/methodology/approach: After data collection, this paper performs correlation analysis, regression and path analysis. Findings: Correlation results display clear collinearity among energy structure variables. Regression finds that coal, oil, natural gas and technology can be used as indicators for carbon intensity while primary electricity has been excluded. Path analysis shows that coal had the largest direct and positive impact on emission intensity. Natural gas had a positive direct and negative indirect effect through its negative relationship with coal on emission intensity. Technology has the largest negative elasticity while all fossil energies are positive. Results indicate a negative effect of energy structure adjustment on China’s national carbon intensity. Originality/value: Given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO2 emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems. Considering the important role in mitigating global climate change, China needs to transition toward a low-carbon energy system to significantly reduce its carbon intensity in the future.

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