Macroecological correlates of taxonomic uncertainty in New World coralsnakes

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Abstract
Defining and delimiting species boundaries is a challenging task, even for specialists. After a species is described, subsequent taxonomic revisions may lump it with another taxon, split it into two or more species, or even reclassify it into a different taxon. These changes in species taxonomy can cause instability in the list of species considered valid over time, which can affect macroecological predictions and have consequences for conservation planning and biodiversity management. In this study, we use five macroecological variables and four factors associated with the taxonomic history of New World coralsnakes to investigate whether these variables can predict the likelihood of a species undergoing taxonomic revision, leading to changes in its taxonomy. Some of the authors, experts on the group, identified, drawing on their knowledge, which species have a higher likelihood of undergoing taxonomic change. Our findings indicate that the number of synonyms, body size, and the latitude of the centroid positively affect the probability of a species splitting in the future. The necessity for a species to undergo taxonomic revision increases with the number of subspecies, and the level of difficulty in delimiting a species increases with the number of synonyms. We demonstrated that most coralsnake species exhibit some degree of taxonomic uncertainty, with these species predominantly found in moist broadleaf forests. If macroecological and taxonomic variables can be used to predict the taxonomic uncertainty of other taxonomic groups, we could enhance our understanding of how taxonomic uncertainty affects our perception of macroecological patterns and conservation planning. Additionally, this approach could help identify which species need more taxonomic attention.