A risk assessment method of transformer considering the economy and reliability of power network

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Abstract
Power transformer is one of the most expensive equipment and plays a vital role in power transmission and distribution (T&D) systems. This paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment method of transformers, which integrates the operating condition of transformer and the consequences of transformer failure. Health index provides a practical tool for evaluating the state of transformers. Meanwhile, the probability of transformer outage is calculated by the historical operation and maintenance statistic data, which in some extent represents the possibility of transformer failure under certain health index level. Subsequently, based on the power flow analysis, the increment of network loss and emergence of load reduction induced by transformer outage are proposed. This method not only has a vital significance for the operation and maintenance of transformers, but also has a reference for improving the economic efficiency and the reliability of power network operating.