Predictive Value of Collagen Biomarkers for Heart Failure With and Without Preserved Ejection Fraction: MESA (Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

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Abstract
Background: Collagen biomarkers may correlate with incident heart failure ( HF ) and its subtypes. We hypothesized that circulating procollagen type III N‐terminal propeptide ( PIIINP ) and collagen type I carboxy‐terminal telopeptide ( ICTP ) predict incident HF . Methods and Results: We used a stratified sampling design in a multiethnic sample of 3187 subjects, initially aged 45 to 84 years and free of cardiovascular disease. We assayed baseline serum PIIINP and ICTP concentrations using radioimmunoassay. Incident HF was adjudicated, distinguishing reduced ejection fraction ( HF r EF ; EF P =0.002) in model 1 and correspondingly 1.45 versus 2.59 ( P =0.003) in model 2. For low ICTP (lower 7 octiles) versus higher ICTP (octile 8), incidence densities were 1.79 versus 3.64 ( P =0.002) in model 1 and 1.58 versus 3.12 ( P =0.002) in model 2. Conclusions: High levels of circulating ICTP and PIIINP as collagen biomarkers appear to be associated with incident HF p EF , but not HF r EF .

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