In-Stream Tidal Energy Resources in Macrotidal Non-Cohesive Sediment Environments: Effect of Morphodynamic Changes at Two Bays in the Upper Gulf of California

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Abstract
While many in-steam tidal energy resource studies have been carried out globally, very few studies have assessed the effect of seabed changes on tidal energy resources. For coastal regions in particular, where the seabed is generally more mobile than in deep waters, bathymetric evolution could have a significant effect on tidal energy production. Here two high-resolution models, one purely hydrodynamic and one morphodynamic, are used to analyse the potential effect of natural morphodynamic evolution on tidal energy resources at two macro-tidal sandy bays, Adaír Bay and San Jorge Bay, in the Upper Gulf of California, Mexico. The high-resolution models are validated using a low-resolution model and ADCP observations to assess the agreement between model predictions and observations of tides at three ADCP moorings within the domain of interest. The models’ skill is evaluated using several error statistics such as the mean relative error, the root mean square error (RMSE), and the correlation coefficient. It was found that the regions with the largest bed changes, and also the largest renewable energy resources, were near the shore. Moreover, the results indicated a good correlation between a) regions with the most significant depth changes, and b) the regions where the difference in annual energy production with and without depth change was largest. Finally, the morphodynamic model was run for two years, and the evolution of a zonal profile (in the west-east direction) off the coast at the southeastern corner of Adaír Bay was inspected. This profile evolved towards a featureless equilibrium profile, in good agreement with the morphological classification for macro-tidal sandy environments and with the model assumptions. But most importantly, this natural evolution would not be detrimental to tidal energy exploitation at the site.

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