Evaluating the Market Potential of Concentrated Solar Thermal Technology for Different Applications in the MENA Region

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Abstract
Missing financial and regulatory frameworks lead to low development and stagnating costs of concentrated solar thermal technology. Nevertheless, in locations with high direct normal irradiance (DNI) such as the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region, the technology could become competitive, being promised a learning rate of 10–20%, and boost local economies. This study aims to identify potential business cases and evaluate the increased technology's investment likelihood in the region, focusing on Egypt. A thorough market assessment on the structure, regulatory framework, demand, and potential revenues was conducted for the power and process heating sector. A SWOT analysis was performed considering the local context and competing technologies. Egypt was shown to offer local manufacturing potential, regulatory framework, and renewable energy (RE) strategies, facilitating the technology's deployment. Moreover, the market is already open for private investment and selected international funds are directed toward CSP development. High initial technology cost, subsidized fuel and electricity prices for industry, alongside lack of long-term financial incentives and awareness of potential long-term benefits for the economy were identified as the most significant threats. High solar heat demand for industrial processes and large potential for concentrated solar heat (CSH) application were identified. Yet, the market is decentralized and the processes are very diverse, moreover retrofitting may pose risks alongside the high upfront investment and additional land costs, which makes concentrated solar heat applications less attractive for the Egyptian industrial sector. Hence, for concentrated solar technology deployment, financial incentives and a regulatory framework specifically directed toward the technology would be necessary.

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