Abstract
Background and objective: This paper explores the likely evolution of federal and provincial excise revenues pursuant to the imposition of a second tranche of levies on vaping liquid in six of Canada's provinces that together account for 80% of the population. It also explores the nicotine landscape more generally as it pertains to both combusted and non-combusted tobacco/nicotine products. Confusion about health risk defines this space. While tax-policy choice depends upon the goals of the taxing authority, policy efficacy and the downstream consequences, including public health consequences, depend upon consumer knowledge behavior. Methods: Data at both provincial and federal levels for the vaping sector are scant as of mid-2025. However, reliable data on excise revenue are available for the financial year 2023-2024 federally. This serves as one anchor point for the analysis. The Canadian Tobacco and Nicotine Survey and the Canadian Community Health Survey furnish data on the consumer side. The Canadian Vaping Association has also supplied information on the product and value composition of the vaping market. These sources together facilitate a simulation approach to estimating market response and excise revenue. Results: Under reasonable assumptions about the demand elasticity for vaping, the second tranche of excise levies will yield limited additional revenue for the federal government and is likely to provide a further impetus to the illegal sector. Conclusion: Excise revenues from combustibles will continue to decline. The beneficial face of this will be an improvement in health. The imposition of additional levies on nicotine e-vapor products may unintentionally stimulate the market for combustibles. The excise levy should be modified. Simultaneously, the health and tax authorities could improve health-oriented decision making in the smoking and non-smoking populations by the provision of accurate information on risk and by using differential taxation as a signalling mechanism. Ignorance deters switching from high-to low-risk nicotine products.