Risk Evolution of Ship Oil Spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

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Abstract
Ship oil spill accident will lead to enormous hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The risk mitigation of the ship oil spill is significant to the stakeholder of the maritime safety administration. To study the risk evolution of the ship oil spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the framework of ship oil spill risk evolution was proposed according to the general definition of the risk; then, risk evolutions were analyzed from the perspectives of expected probability, system constraints of accident developing, and possible harmful consequences based on accidents analyses, simulation experiments, and structural equation model analysis. The results indicate that the system constraints of accident developing, such as the quantity of oil spills, free evolution time, and wind and flow conditions, have significant impacts on risk evolution of the ship oil spill after the occurrence of an accident in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

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