Real‐world data prognostic model of overall survival in patients with advanced NSCLC receiving anti‐PD‐1/PD‐L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors as second‐line monotherapy

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Abstract
Background and aim: The objective of this retrospective, observational, noninterventional cohort study was to investigate prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced non‐small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) and to develop a novel prognostic model.Methods: A total of 4049 patients with aNSCLC diagnosed between January 2011 and February 2020 who received atezolizumab, nivolumab, or pembrolizumab as second‐line monotherapy were selected from a real‐world deidentified database to build the cohort. Patients could not have received first‐line treatment with clinical study drug(s) nor immune checkpoint inhibitors including anti‐programmed cell death 1 (PD‐1)/programmed death‐ligand 1 (PD‐L1), and anti‐cytotoxic T‐lymphocyte‐associated protein 4 therapies.Results: Patients had a median age of 69 years; 45% were female, 75% White, 70% had stage IV at initial diagnosis, and 70% had nonsquamous histology. A Cox proportional hazards model with lasso regularization was used to build a prognostic model for OS using 18 baseline demographic and clinical factors based on the real‐world data cohort. The risk‐increasing prognostic factors were abnormally low albumin and chloride levels, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score ≥ 2, and abnormally high levels of alkaline phosphatase and white blood cells. The risk‐decreasing prognostic factors were PD‐L1 positivity, longer time from advanced diagnosis to start of first‐line therapy, and higher systolic blood pressure. The performance of the model was validated using data from the OAK trial, and the c‐index for the OAK trial validation cohort was 0.65 and 0.67 for the real‐world data cohort.Conclusions: Based on baseline demographic and clinical factors from a real‐world setting, this prognostic model was developed to discriminate the risk of death in patients with aNSCLC treated with checkpoint inhibitors as second‐line monotherapy, and it performed well in the real‐world data and clinical trial cohorts.
Funding Information
  • Genentech Foundation

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