Population responses to a historic drought across the range of the common monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus)

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Abstract
PREMISE: Due to climate change, more frequent and intense periodic droughts are predicted to increasingly pose major challenges to the persistence of plant populations. When a severe drought occurs over a broad geographical region, independent responses by individual populations provide replicated natural experiments for examining the evolution of drought resistance and the potential for evolutionary rescue.METHODS: We used a resurrection approach to examine trait evolution in populations of the common monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus, exposed to a record drought in California from 2011 to 2017. Specifically, we compared variation in traits related to drought escape and avoidance from seeds collected from 37 populations pre‐ and post‐drought in a common garden. In a parallel experiment, we evaluated fitness in two populations, one which thrived and one which was nearly extirpated during the drought, under well‐watered and dry‐down conditions.RESULTS: We observed substantial variation among populations in trait evolution. In the subset of populations where phenotypes changed significantly, divergence proceeded along trait correlations with some populations flowering rapidly with less vegetative tissue accumulation and others delaying flowering with greater vegetative tissue accumulation. The degree of trait evolution was only weakly correlated with drought intensity but strongly correlated with initial levels of standing variation. Fitness was higher in the post‐drought than pre‐drought accessions in both treatments for the thriving population, but lower in both treatments for the nearly extirpated population.CONCLUSIONS: Together, our results indicate that evolutionary responses to drought are context dependent and reflect the standing genetic variation and genetic correlations present within populations.

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