Water Resources Management in Situations of Water Scarcity: Hydrological and Climatic Insights from the Guadalupe Basin

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Abstract
The present study examines water resource management in the Guadalupe Basin, Baja California, a Mediterranean semi-arid region characterized by high climatic variability, limited surface water availability, and strong dependence on groundwater. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the climatic water balance and its implications for groundwater recharge. To this end, a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework was utilized, incorporating hydroclimatic, geomorphological, geological, and vegetation variables. The Thornthwaite–Mather method was employed to analyze the data. The results obtained demonstrate a marked east–west hydroclimatic asymmetry. The high-elevation regions of the Sierra de Juárez exhibit higher precipitation, lower evapotranspiration, and more favorable conditions for recharge, primarily due to infiltration through fractured bedrock and forested soils. Conversely, the lowland valley areas experience persistent water deficits, high evapotranspiration rates, and limited recharge, despite the presence of permeable alluvial sediments. Vegetation has been shown to play a critical role in the regulation of infiltration and soil moisture retention. The basin functions as a tripartite hydrological system, comprising recharge, transition, and storage-limited zones. These findings underscore the vulnerability of groundwater resources to climate change and anthropogenic pressure, underscoring the importance of safeguarding mountain recharge areas to ensure long-term regional water sustainability.