Air Pollution Correlation and Seasonal Variability in Chattogram’s Urban Ecosystem

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Abstract
Rapid urban growth and industrial activity have significantly increased air pollution in Chattogram, Bangladesh. Among various pollutants, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) has emerged as a major concern due to its severe effects on public health and the environment. This study investigates seasonal and temporal variations in air quality and identifies periods of high risk. Data were collected from the Department of Environment, including PM2.5 and PM10 measurements from 2013 to April 2025 and AQI data from 2022 to April 2025. The analysis focuses on seasonal trends, monthly fluctuations, extreme pollution events, and correlations among pollutants. The study examines which seasons are most polluted and how PM2.5, PM10, and AQI change over the year. Results indicate that winter experiences the highest pollution levels, while monsoon shows the lowest. Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon show moderate pollution, representing transitional periods with variable air quality. Monthly trends reveal that pollution peaks in January and reaches its lowest point in July, demonstrating clear temporal patterns. Extreme pollution events are most frequent in winter and the pre-monsoon period, emphasizing periods of highest health risk. Correlation analysis shows strong positive associations between PM2.5, PM10, and AQI (r > 0.80). Machine-learning models demonstrated moderate predictive skill for PM10 forecasting (R2 up to 0.65), while PM2.5 models at Agrabad produced negative R2 values, indicating performance worse than a mean-value benchmark; accordingly, long-term PM2.5 projections at Agrabad are not reported. Exploratory PM10 projections suggest that concentrations may remain above WHO guideline levels through 2030, although these projections should be interpreted cautiously because meteorological drivers were not included in the modelling framework. The findings highlight the need for seasonal interventions to control particulate matter, particularly in winter and pre-monsoon. Measures such as stricter emission regulations, industrial controls, and public awareness campaigns are essential for mitigating health risks. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of air-quality dynamics in Chattogram and offers a framework for targeted pollution-control strategies. Implementing these strategies can improve air quality, protect public health, and support sustainable urban development.

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