Spatial-temporal variation of green space and racial disparities in the United States

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Abstract
While the relationship between race disparity and green space access is well-established in the United States (U.S.), its spatial-temporal variations and local drivers are still unclear. This study examines how racial disparities in access to green space changed between 2010 and 2020 across the contiguous U.S. and identifies both global (the whole study area) and local (individual spatial units) drivers of these disparities. By integrating high-resolution satellite-derived land cover metrics with census tract-level sociodemographic data, we evaluated these disparities using geospatial analysis, linear regression, and explainable machine learning. We find that the racial disparity in green cover neither narrowed nor widened over the decade, despite substantial national demographic diversification, indicating that demographic change alone was insufficient to reduce inequity. Our results reveal a consistent pattern: census tracts with higher proportions of White residents have significantly greater green cover, while areas with greater non-White populations have considerably less. Feature importance analysis identified socioeconomic vulnerabilities, particularly housing burden, transportation access, and economic disadvantage, as primary drivers of these disparities, highlighting the role of structural barriers in perpetuating environmental injustice. Local explainability analyses further revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in these relationships: single-parent families remained the dominant local predictor nationally, PM2.5 declined sharply in influence across the western U.S., and forest and shrub cover emerged as a new leading predictor in parts of the Mountain West, Pacific region, and Texas by 2020. Our findings highlight the need for equity-centered policies, targeted interventions, and community-informed urban planning to dismantle these disparities and ensure equitable access to health-promoting natural environments for all communities.
Funding Information
  • Kiwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, The Ohio State University (GR138001)

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