The Philippine Economy Toward 2050: Aspirations and Reality

Authors:
  • MSMariel Monica Sauler
    Mariel Monica Sauler
  • CCChristopher Cabuay
    Christopher Cabuay
  • ASAlellie Sobreviñas
    Alellie Sobreviñas
  • SKSusan Kurdli
    Susan Kurdli
  • JPJulián Pérez
    Julián Pérez
  • EAEva Marie Aragones
    Eva Marie Aragones
  • GLGerardo Largoza
    Gerardo Largoza
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Abstract
Chapter 12 (“The Philippine Economy Toward 2050: Aspirations and Reality”) provides forecasts for the Philippine economy until 2050, focusing on the variables that define its structure: productivity, employment shares, and wages across 16 sectors. The forecasts tell a story of both progress and limitations. The chapter shows that the Philippine economy will continue to advance—wages and income per capita will increase, and poverty will decline. However, the pace and scale of change will likely fall short of the government’s ambitious claims. The share of employment in agriculture will steadily decline, but a significant proportion of Filipino workers will continue to be employed in low-productivity sectors. The implication is sobering: There will be improvements, but the economy will not be all that different from what we are observing today. Without decisive and bold reforms to transform the structure of the economy, the Philippines may once again miss the opportunity to achieve sustained growth, and becoming a high-income nation within the next 25 years will remain an aspiration rather than a reality.