Did Financial Incentives Increase 5-11-Year-Olds' COVID-19 Vaccination? Synthetic Control Method

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Abstract
Context: During 2020–2021, many states offered financial incentives for COVID-19 vaccinations. Systematic review evidence suggests that this was often effective among adults. Objectives: We aimed to investigate whether incentives increased vaccination rates among 5-11-year-olds. Design: The synthetic control method was used. Setting: Minnesota's “Kids Deserve a Shot” policy. Participants: Data were drawn from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Census Bureau. Relevant placebo and robustness tests were conducted. Intervention: The offer of financial incentives for pediatric COVID-19 vaccinations. Main Outcome Measure: The number of fully vaccinated 5-11-year-olds in Minnesota. Results: The synthetic control was well-matched with true Minnesota during the preintervention period. There was no difference between true Minnesota and the synthetic Minnesota during the postintervention period, indicating that the incentive policy had no effect. The robustness checks and placebo tests were all consistent with this result. Conclusions: Policymakers attempted various interventions to promote vaccine uptake, including financial incentives. Although this analysis did not find any differences between true Minnesota and synthetic Minnesota during the postintervention period, further research into which factors determine incentive effectiveness will strengthen interventions and protect communities in future public health crises.

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