Green hotspots? Unveiling global hotspots and shifting trends in carbon credit projects

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Abstract
This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns of verified carbon credit projects from 2004 to 2022, utilizing data from the Gold Standard Foundation (GSF) registry and employing spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) and hot spot analysis (Getis‐Ord Gi*) in ArcGIS Pro. South Asia and East Africa emerged as key hotspots for carbon credit projects. Hotspots transitioned from China, Brazil, Peru, Panama, and Cambodia (2004–2016) to India, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda (2017–2022) with Turkey remaining a hotspot throughout the period. Overall, the analysis reveals a statistically significant Moran's I of 0.07 and a z‐score of 3.04, indicating spatial clustering of projects and a less than 1% likelihood that the clustering is a result of random chance. The spatial pattern and types of projects align with socio‐economic conditions and environmental protection objectives in different regions. Domestic energy efficiency projects are prevalent, such as improved cookstoves, biogas digesters, and borehole technologies for safe water access. These findings prompt the deduction that socio‐economic conditions wield substantial influence on investor preferences in carbon credit projects. Hence, the study contends that the overarching goal transcends mere carbon emissions mitigation; it extends to elevating the socio‐economic well‐being of local populations. By pinpointing geographical hotspots and elucidating temporal shifts, this study equips stakeholders with strategic insights into investment in carbon credit projects and highlights evolving investor interests in the carbon credit landscape, bridging the gap between environmental objectives and socio‐economic imperatives.

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