Structural health and environmental risks as determinants of life expectancy in Bangladesh

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Abstract
Bangladesh has experienced substantial improvements in life expectancy over recent decades, yet persistent structural health risks continue to limit further gains in population longevity. This study examines the combined effects of malnutrition, air pollution, suicide mortality, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), maternal mortality, and road traffic injury mortality on life expectancy in Bangladesh using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to assess both long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run dynamics, with robustness checks conducted using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimators. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship between life expectancy and the selected health risk factors. In the long run, malnutrition, NCD prevalence, maternal mortality, and road traffic injury mortality significantly reduce life expectancy, highlighting the enduring influence of biological, systemic, and injury-related health constraints. Short-run results indicate a rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium following health shocks, suggesting that temporary interventions affect longevity without altering underlying structural outcomes. By integrating environmental, biological, and psychological dimensions within a unified empirical framework, this study contributes to the longevity literature in developing-country contexts and offers policy-relevant insights aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 3 on good health and well-being.

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