Probabilistic stability assessment of deforested steep slopes using 3D finite element method

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Abstract
Not all effects of climate change can be described directly; changing boundary conditions bring a multitude of indirect consequences. As an example, the droughts of recent years have caused large-scale forest dieback, also in Germany, and thus led to extensive areas of calamity in the Siegerland, a region in Germany’s central low mountain range. The slopes, some of which are very steep here, are no longer covered with trees, so that the root system, the natural reinforcement of the soil, begins to rot. In particular, increasing extreme events such as persistent precipitation and heavy rainfall in combination with the lack of trees raise the question of the stability of the now bare slopes. Due to the variability of soil properties and the uncertainties related to the hydrological boundary conditions as well as to vegetation rooting, a reliability-based approach is deemed to be an appropriate tool to assess the stability of deforested slopes. This paper presents the reliability assessment procedure for slopes with vegetation and discusses the challenges when practically applied to a 3D Finite Element model as compared to an analytical Limit Equilibrium model of the slope.

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