Reliable Breast Cancer Molecular Subtype Prediction based on uncertainty-aware Bayesian Deep Learning by Mammography

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Abstract
Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with different molecular subtypes, clinical behavior, treatment responses as well as survival outcomes. The development of a reliable, accurate, available and inexpensive method to predict the molecular subtypes using medical images plays an important role in the diagnosis and prognosis of breast cancer. Recently, deep learning methods have shown good performance in the breast cancer classification tasks using various medical images. Despite all that success, classical deep learning cannot deliver the predictive uncertainty. The uncertainty represents the validity of the predictions. Therefore, the high predicted uncertainty might cause a negative effect in the accurate diagnosis of breast cancer molecular subtypes. To overcome this, uncertainty quantification methods are used to determine the predictive uncertainty. Accordingly, in this study, we proposed an uncertainty-aware Bayesian deep learning model using the full mammogram images. In addition, to increase the performance of the multi-class molecular subtype classification task, we proposed a novel hierarchical classification strategy, named the two-stage classification strategy. The separate AUC of the proposed model for each subtype was 0.71, 0.75 and 0.86 for HER2-enriched, luminal and triple-negative classes, respectively. The proposed model not only has a comparable performance to other studies in the field of breast cancer molecular subtypes prediction, even using full mammography images, but it is also more reliable, due to quantify the predictive uncertainty.

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