Compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions and human mobility influence dengue dynamics heterogeneously across Vietnam

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Abstract
Dengue presents a major public health challenge in Vietnam, driven by biological, behavioural, and environmental factors. Compound climate extremes, such as sequential hydrometeorological events, can influence dengue risk yet remain understudied. We evaluated the effects of compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions, and human mobility on dengue relative risk across 670 districts in Vietnam over 20 years, stratifying by eight subregions spanning emerging to endemic transmission. Dengue risk was greatest following dry-then-wet conditions in seven subregions. Higher temperatures increased risk across North and Central Vietnam, but had limited effect in the South. Mobility associations followed an urban-rural gradient, with increased risk in highly rural districts where residents travelled more frequently to fewer destinations, and in urban districts with more visitors and dispersed outgoing mobility. Stratifying climatic and socioeconomic effects by subregion improved predictive skill at lead times of 1 to 6 months over unstratified and baseline models, with substantial spatial variation. Accounting for compound extremes across distinct spatial contexts could strengthen disease early warning systems in Vietnam and beyond.
Funding Information
  • European Union (101086640)
  • Schmidt Sciences
  • Medical Research Council (MR/Y004663/1)

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