Reply to Comment by Hinkel et al. on “Flooding Is Not Like Filling a Bath”

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Abstract
With a Comment on our Commentary, “Flooding is not like filling a Bath” in Earth's Future , Hinkel and colleagues dispute our perspective that bathtub models should be abandoned in the context of large‐scale flood risk studies, and share an alternative perspective about the cause of climate hype from flood risk studies. Further analysis of the evidence including studies on the origination and propagation of hazard error through risk modeling frameworks, and literature on causal inference, leads us to reaffirm our original perspective. However, we acknowledge that bathtub models might be suitable in local studies of lakes or other water bodies lacking flood dynamics. Furthermore, we are pleased to be in agreement with Hinkel and colleagues that climate hype is of great concern to the scientific enterprise, and there are surely to be many contributing factors to climate hype which we hope will be more carefully considered by authors, reviewers, editors and journalists moving forward.

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