Identifying Key Thresholds for Flood-Season Operating Water Levels in River-Type Reservoirs Based on the Beneficial Utilization of Small and Medium Floods: A Case Study of the Three Gorges Reservoir

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Abstract
The beneficial utilization of small and medium floods requires a clear flood-control safety boundary before floodwater can be moderately stored and regulated as a water resource. For the Three Gorges Reservoir, a large river-type reservoir with long-distance backwater effects and tributary blocking, this boundary cannot be determined solely from the dam-front water level. This study developed a one-dimensional unsteady hydrodynamic model with dynamic roughness calibration to investigate the risk-constrained flood-season operating water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Typical flood events and the 20-year return period design flood were used to examine the responses of the maximum dam-front flood-regulation water level, excess flood volume, longitudinal water levels, and exceedance risk at key reservoir-area sections under different initial regulation water levels and release-discharge conditions. The results show that the Changshou reach is the main control section for high-water-level inundation risk under the study scenarios. When the initial regulation water level is at or below 155 m, the dam-front flood-regulation water level, the peak water level at Changshou, and the exceedance duration generally vary only slightly. When the initial regulation water level exceeds 155 m, these risk indicators increase markedly, indicating a reduced flood-control safety margin. Perturbation analysis further shows that the dam-front flood-regulation indicators are relatively insensitive to small roughness and dam-front boundary perturbations, whereas the Changshou water level and exceedance duration are more sensitive to roughness and flood-volume perturbations. Therefore, 155 m should be interpreted as a conservative operational reference boundary under the current design-flood framework, existing operation rules, and the assumption of no forecast-based pre-release, rather than as an absolute safety threshold. Increasing release discharge can reduce high-water-level risk in the reservoir area under preset release limits, but its practical application must remain conditional on downstream flood-control constraints and real-time flood-conveyance capacity. The results provide a hydrodynamic basis for risk-constrained flood-season operation of large river-type reservoirs.
Funding Information
  • China Three Gorges Corporation (WWKY-2021-0439)

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