Analysing Spatial and Statistical Dependencies of Deforestation Affected by Residential Growth: Gorganrood Basin, Northeast Iran

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Abstract
This study aimed to examine deforestation and residential growth trends and their spatial dependencies from 1972 to 2010 in Northeast of Iran. First, change rates of forests and residential areas were mapped using Landsat satellite images in 1972–1987, 1987–2000 and 2000–2010. Then, the forest change patterns were interpreted using univariate local Moran's I (local univariate spatial autocorrelation), and the spatial autocorrelation between deforestation and residential growth was tested through bivariate local Moran's I (bivariate local spatial autocorrelation). Furthermore, the spatial relationships between deforestation and residential growth rates were quantified by ordinary least squares, spatial lag (SL) and geographically weighted regression. Results indicated that approximately 25% of forests have been converted to other land‐use types in the span of 38 years, since 1972. Local univariate spatial autocorrelation maps showed that significant values of high–high cluster scattered in all locations in the first span, in the east and south aspects in the second duration, and in the eastern part in the third span. Bivariate local spatial autocorrelation indicated a meaningful Moran's I values of −0·12, −0·26 and −0·20 between deforestation and residential growth, chronologically. Analyses of spatial regression models showed that geographically weighted regression performed better than SL and ordinary least squares in the first (R2 = 0·315, AIC = 6,160) and third periods (R2 = 0·27, AIC = 6,351), whereas, the validity of SL was the highest in the second period (R2 = 0·36, AIC = 6,288). However, the overall trends of deforestation and residential growth have decreased, but the rate of deforestation induced by residential growth is still significant. Spatial exploration of residential growth in deforestation leads to determine its influences in local scale for better conservation of these valuable natural resources. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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