The Impact of Median Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease at Transplant Minus 3 National Policy on Waitlist Outcomes in Patients With and Without Hepatocellular Carcinoma

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Abstract
As a result of ongoing regional disparities, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) implemented policy in May 2019 limiting exception points for waitlisted patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to median Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease at transplant in the area surrounding a transplant center minus 3 points (MMAT‐3). The impact of this policy change remains unknown. We included adult patients with HCC (n = 4567) and without HCC (n = 19,773) in the UNOS database added to the waiting list before this policy change (May 7, 2017‐May 18, 2019) and after (May 19, 2019‐March 7, 2020). Cumulative incidence analysis estimated the probability of dropout within 1 year of listing decreased from 12.9% before the policy to 11.1% after the policy in candidates without HCC and from 14% to 10.7% in candidates with HCC. Incidence rates of liver transplantation (LT) and waitlist dropout varied significantly before the policy in patients with HCC and without HCC but nearly equalized in the postpolicy era. These effects were observed in both shorter and longer wait regions. With policy change being modeled as a time‐dependent covariate, competing risk regression analyses estimated a decreased risk of dropout after policy change in the non‐HCC group (cause‐specific hazard ratio, 0.91; P = 0.02) after adjusting for demographic variables. These results suggest that the MMAT‐3 policy has successfully reduced disparities in access to LT including across UNOS wait regions, although certain patients with HCC are now disadvantaged.
Funding Information
  • National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (P30 DK026743)

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