Green Transition Risks in the Construction Sector: A Qualitative Analysis of European Green Deal Policy Documents

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Abstract
The construction sector is central to achieving the objectives of the European Green Deal (EGD). While existing research on transition risks predominantly focuses on project- or firm-level challenges, less is known about the transition risks implied by high-level EU policy documents. This study addresses this gap by systematically analysing 101 EGD-related policy and guidance documents published between 2019 and February 2025. A mixed human–AI content analysis approach was applied, combining human expert manual coding with automated validation using large language models (Kimi K2 and GLM 4.6). The final dataset contains 2752 coded risk references organised into eight main categories and twenty-six subcategories. Results show that transition risks are most frequently associated with environmental, economic, and legislative domains, with Climate Change Impact, Cost of Transition, Pollution, Investment Risks, and Implementation Variability emerging as the most prominent risks across the corpus. Technological and social risks appear less frequently but highlight important systemic and contextual vulnerabilities. Overall, analysis of the EGD policy texts reveals the green transition as being constrained not only by environmental pressures but also by financial feasibility and execution capacity. The study provides a structured, policy-level risk profile of the EGD and demonstrates the value of hybrid human–LLM analysis for large-scale policy content analysis and interpretation. These insights support policymakers and industry stakeholders to anticipate structural uncertainties that may affect the construction sector’s transition toward a low-carbon, circular economy.
Funding Information
  • Housing Decarbonisation Skills for Climate, Health, and Jobs (Skills4Deca) project (DIGITAL-2022-SKILLS-03-SPECIALISEDEDU-101123311)
  • Empowering Trainers for Digital innovation in construction Ecosystem (ET4D) project (2024-1-IT01-KA220-VET-000249119)
  • REnewable and SUstainable REhabilitation of Cultural and HisToric buildings After Disaster (RESUrRECT—AiD) project (2025-1-IT02-KA220-HED-000361564)

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