Measuring Tourism Uncertainty ( TUI )

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Abstract
The tourism sector is highly susceptible to uncertainties due to its complex economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical structure. This fragility necessitates strengthening this sector's long‐term planning capacity to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Currently, however, there is no single composite metric that exists to measure and evaluate these tourism‐related uncertainties. To this aim, this study, for the first time, develops and introduces a novel Tourism Uncertainty Index (TUI) for 43 countries using the context window (CW) method. A series of alternative specification analyses was conducted to test the robustness of the TUI. These include different CW sizes, the use of GDP‐weighted versus equal‐weighted indices, the exclusion of geopolitical risks, and comparisons with established uncertainty indices. The findings indicate that TUI exhibits a methodologically robust structure. As a result, TUI provides an innovative tool (metric) for both academic research and sustainable tourism policies. Finally, empirical findings of Panel Granger causality, VAR, and panel regression analyses indicate that increases in TUI reduce the tourism sector's contribution to GDP (SDG 8.9.1), the number of people employed in the tourism sector (SDG 8.9.2), and sector‐related CO 2 emissions (SDG 13). For example, a 1% increase in the US's TUI decreases SDG 8.9.2 by 0.28%. These findings demonstrate that TUI plays a decisive role in sustainable tourism through both its economic and environmental impacts.

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