Integrated seismic monitoring reveals subsurface evolution during volcanic inflation at Askja volcano, Iceland

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Abstract
Identifying volcanic transitions from quiescence to unrest and tracking subsurface evolution remains critically challenging. We analyzed continuous seismic records from Askja volcano (Iceland) from 2008--2024 using coda wave interferometry to track relative seismic velocity variations (dv/v) as a proxy for subsurface changes during renewed volcanic intrusion. This analysis is complemented with three additional methods: network covariance matrix analysis, Displacement Seismic Amplitude Ratio (DSAR) single-station analysis, and sensitivity kernel analysis, alongside GNSS, earthquake catalog, and meteorological datasets. Since August 2021, dv/v measurements revealed an abrupt transition from regular seasonal oscillations (±0.2\%) to predominantly negative values reaching -0.7\% near the inflation center, coinciding with 76 cm GNSS-detected ground uplift by August 2024. DSAR indicated higher seismic attenuation near the inflation source, suggesting volatile accumulation in the shallow subsurface through June 2022, followed by marked decreases associated with depressurization. Sensitivity kernel analysis demonstrated wave sensitivity reaches down to 3 km depth, encompassing the shallow reservoir levels. Integrated seismic observations revealed magma-induced seismic velocity drops, followed by system reorganization with frequency-dependent recovery, and finally establishment of a new state with hydrothermal circulation maintaining altered seismic properties. This approach demonstrates the effectiveness of continuous seismic monitoring for detecting volcanic unrest transitions and tracking evolving subsurface processes.

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