Long-Term Ice Conditions in Yingkou, a Coastal Region Northeast of the Bohai Sea, between 1951/1952 and 2017/2018: Modeling and Observations

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Abstract
Bohai Sea ice creates obstacles for maritime navigation and offshore activities. A better understanding of ice conditions is valuable for sea-ice management. The evolution of 67 years of seasonal ice thickness in a coastal region (Yingkou) in the Northeast Bohai Sea was simulated by using a snow/ice thermodynamic model, using local weather-station data. The model was first validated by using seasonal ice observations from field campaigns and a coastal radar (the season of 2017/2018). The model simulated seasonal ice evolution well, particularly ice growth. We found that the winter seasonal mean air temperature in Yingkou increased by 0.33 °C/decade slightly higher than air temperature increase (0.27 °C/decade) around Bohai Sea. The decreasing wind-speed trend (0.05 m/s perdecade) was a lot weaker than that averaged (0.3 m/s per decade) between the early 1970s and 2010s around the entire Bohai Sea. The multi-decadal ice-mass balance revealed decreasing trends of the maximum and average ice thickness of 2.6 and 0.8 cm/decade, respectively. The length of the ice season was shortened by 3.7 days/decade, and ice breakup dates were advanced by 2.3 days/decade. All trends were statistically significant. The modeled seasonal maximum ice thickness is highly correlated (0.83, p < 0.001) with the Bohai Sea Ice Index (BoSI) used to quantify the severity of the Bohai Sea ice condition. The freezing-up date, however, showed a large interannual variation without a clear trend. The simulations indicated that Bohai ice thickness has grown continuously thinner since 1951/1952. The time to reach 0.15 m level ice was delayed from 3 January to 21 January, and the ending time advanced from 6 March to 19 February. There was a significant weakening of ice conditions in the 1990s, followed by some recovery in 2000s. The relationship between large-scale climate indices and ice condition suggested that the AO and NAO are strongly correlated with interannual changes in sea-ice thickness in the Yingkou region.

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