Evolving Judgments of Terror Risks: Foresight, Hindsight, and Emotion.
Authors:
- Baruch FischhoffBFBaruch Fischhoff
- Roxana M. GonzalezRGRoxana M. Gonzalez
- Jennifer S. LernerJLJennifer S. Lerner
- Deborah A. SmallDSDeborah A. Small
- 1 January 2005
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Psychological Association (APA) in Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
- Vol. 11 (2) , 124-139
Abstract
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public.Keywords
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