Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Multi-Scenario Projections of the Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Basin: A GeoDetector-PLUS-InVEST Integrated Framework for a Coupled Human–Natural System Analysis

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Abstract
The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a critical ecological zone in China now confronting growing tensions between land conservation and development. This study combines land use, climate, and socio-economic data with spatial–statistical models (GeoDetector [GD]–Patch-generating Land Use Simulation [PLUS]–Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs [InVEST]) to analyze land use changes (2000–2020), evaluate habitat quality, and simulate scenarios to 2040. Key results include the following: (1) Farmland was decreased by the conversion to forests (+3475 km2) and grasslands (+4522 km2), while construction land expanded rapidly (+11,166 km2); (2) the population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) pressures drove the farmland loss (q = 0.148 for population, q = 0.129 for GDP), while synergies between evapotranspiration (ET) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) promoted forest/grassland recovery (q = 0.155); and (3) ecological protection scenarios increased the grassland area by 12.94% but restricted the construction land growth (−13.84%), with persistent unused land (>3.61% in Inner Mongolia) indicating arid-zone risks. The Habitat Quality-Autocorrelated Coupling Index (HQACI) declined from 0.373 (2020) to 0.345–0.349 (2040), which was linked to drought, groundwater loss, and urban expansion. Proposed strategies including riparian corridor protection, adaptive urban zoning, and gradient-based restoration aim to balance ecological and developmental needs, supporting spatial planning and enhancing the basin-wide habitat quality.
Funding Information
  • the General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (42371208)

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