An Interpretable Index-Based Analysis and Scenario-Based Spatial Simulation of Vegetation Drought in the Yellow River Water Conservation Area

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Abstract
Vegetation drought is a critical manifestation of ecosystem vulnerability in high-altitude, water-limited regions under climate change. The Yellow River Water Conservation Area (YRWC), as the core water source of the Yellow River Basin, is highly sensitive to variations in hydrothermal conditions. In this study, a Temperature–Vegetation–Precipitation Drought Index (TVPDI) was constructed to characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation drought in the YRWC for 2003, 2012, and 2019. The XGBoost–SHAP framework was further employed to quantitatively analyze the nonlinear response characteristics and relative contributions of key factors within the TVPDI framework. Scenario-based spatial simulations of vegetation drought for 2035 are then conducted based on the GeoSOS-FLUS model. The results indicate that vegetation drought in the YRWC exhibits a relatively stable spatial pattern, with drought severity gradually intensifying from southeast to northwest and moderate drought as the dominant type. Precipitation is the key variable of TVPDI, followed by land surface temperature, while NDVI mainly plays a nonlinear regulatory role. Among external factors, atmospheric moisture conditions show relatively higher explanatory relevance, whereas topographic and human activity factors exert comparatively weaker influences. Scenario-based simulation results suggest that vegetation drought may be alleviated under low-emission pathways, whereas high-emission scenarios substantially exacerbate drought severity and associated risks. This study presents an interpretable, index-based analytical framework combined with scenario-based spatial simulation for characterizing vegetation drought in the YRWC, thereby providing scientific support for ecological management and climate adaptation strategies in the Yellow River Basin.
Funding Information
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (42161018)
  • Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021424)
  • Science and Technology project of Gansu province (23ZDKA017)
  • Science and Technology project of Gansu province (23ZDFA018)
  • Science and Technology project of Gansu province (24YFWA019)

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