Probabilistic Risk Analysis Technique of Intentional Electromagnetic Interference at System Level

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Abstract
This paper introduces a new procedural method for the systematic analysis of the risk when a specific facility is exposed to an intentional electromagnetic environment (IEME). The analysis is performed from the viewpoint of the system owner. The exposure of a system to IEME can be described by a set of different scenarios. The method presented in this paper combines characteristics of intentional electromagnetic interference scenarios with susceptibility data of components using statistical-based models for the coupling as well as the system behavior. Within each scenario the coupling to components of the system under assessment is ascertained by an analysis of the electromagnetic topology. The reaction of the system under assessment is modeled by combining the failure probabilities of the components employing the fault tree analysis. The application of a Monte Carlo simulation on the resulting model provides the probability of the top events of the fault trees which are the system level effects or consequences. In a final step, the importance analysis enables the identification of critical elements, e.g., those elements which contribute most to the risk, and therefore starting points for the improvement of the system protection.

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