Early-Stage Australian HCC Patients Treated at Tertiary Centres Show Comparable Survival Across Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Residency

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Abstract
Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) poses a significant public health challenge in Australia, with poorer survival observed in non-metropolitan populations. This study investigated whether survival disparities persist between non-metropolitan and metropolitan patients if only those with early-stage HCC treated at metropolitan tertiary referral centres are considered. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study across ten Australian tertiary centres involving patients with a new diagnosis of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 or A, recorded from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020. Residential postcodes were entered using the Modified Monash (MM) model to define metropolitan versus non-metropolitan residence. The primary endpoint was adjusted for all-cause mortality. Results: Our study included 854 patients (metropolitan n = 612, and non-metropolitan n = 242) with a median follow-up of 42.6 months. We found no significant survival or mortality differences between the two groups with the unadjusted Kaplan–Meier survival analysis (log-rank test p = 0.612) and with the Cox proportional hazards regression analysis (adjusted HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.64–1.34, p = 0.690). As expected, tumour burden, Child–Pugh Score, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were significant predictors of mortality. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that previously observed survival disparities may stem from delayed diagnosis and reduced access to tertiary care in non-metropolitan regions and highlight the need for improved HCC surveillance and referral pathways, particularly for rural and Indigenous communities, to mitigate geographic inequities.

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