Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Model to Unlock Sustainable Heritage Tourism Potential

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Abstract
Heritage sites are vital resources for the tourism industry due to treasures such as world heritage sites. Caravanserais are newly inscribed world heritage sites that, beyond their historical roles, are now capable to be developed as tourist attractions. This study aims to propose a framework based on a multi-criteria decision-making system to evaluate Persian caravanserais’ potential for development as tourist attractions. This study focuses on Isfahan Province in Iran, with a specific emphasis on eight caravanserais within the province that are listed as UNESCO world heritage Sites. A total of 39 relevant criteria related to network connectivity and access, tourist attractions, facilities and services, climatic conditions, geomorphological features, and hazards were utilized to assess the heritage tourism potential. The BMW-WLC multi-criteria decision-making model was applied to determine tourism development suitability and rank the studied caravanserais. The results revealed that a significant portion of the area (34%) is classified as having very high suitability, while only 6% is identified as having very low suitability. The analysis reveals varying tourism potential among caravanserais. Gaz and Gaba Abad rank high overall but require climate adaptation strategies. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively assesses the heritage tourism potential of caravanserais, providing a data-driven, multi-criteria approach to sustainable development.

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