Impacts of climate change and human activities on dry-season vegetation dynamics in Dak Nong Province, Vietnam: a normalized difference vegetation index-based analysis

Author:
Open Access
Publisher website
Google Scholar
Abstract
Dak Nong Province is located in the Asian tropical monsoon region, where vegetation is highly vulnerable during the dry season due to elevated temperatures and limited precipitation. In addition to climate change, rapid population growth further intensifies pressures on vegetation. This study aims to quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to trends in vegetation types during the dry season in this regions and to analyze future trends. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), together with temperature and precipitation data obtained from meteorological stations, were used in this study. These data were used in monthly average form, from 2000 to 2024. The multiple regression residual analysis method was employed to quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NDVI variations. Trend detection was subsequently conducted using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, and the Hurst index was applied to project future NDVI trends. The results indicate that human activities are the primary driver of degradation across all vegetation types in the study area. The most pronounced degradation was observed in perennial agriculture and paddy rice areas, where approximately 75% of the area exhibited either extremely significant or significant degradation. Climate change exerts a pronounced negative impact on production forests and annual crops, with approximately 40% of the area classified as experiencing extremely significant degradation. In contrast, irrigated crops such as perennial agriculture and paddy rice show significant improvement. These findings indicate that when crop water requirements are not adequately met, increasing temperatures are associated with a decline in NDVI, and vice versa. The Hurst exponent analysis indicates that NDVI will continue to decline significantly in the future, with up to 58% of the study area classified as significant decrease and consistent, primarily driven by human activities.

This publication has 43 references indexed in Scilit: