EXPLAINING RATE CHANGES IN DELINQUENT ARREST TRANSITIONS USING EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS*

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Abstract
Many aspects of the criminal career are amenable to empirical analysis, and in recent years we have witnessed a proliferation of research in the areas of individual offense frequency, arrest frequency, career length, and crime‐switching patterns. This research analyzes the effects of explanatory variables on the rate at which officially detected juvenile offenders move from one crime type to another, and the statistical techniques used take advantage of the longitudinal nature of the data. An arrest is considered an event that occurs at a given point in time, and event history analysis is used to model the transition rate from one crime type to another as a function of offense history and offender characteristics. This transition rate encompasses two aspects of the criminal career process: the rate at which arrests take place and the likelihood of transition from arrest to arrest.

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