The Learning Crisis: Three Years after COVID-19

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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered widespread school closures affecting over one billion children worldwide, with potentially lasting effects on learning. Leveraging data from the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), covering 71 education systems and spanning two decades, we quantify the global impact of pandemic-related disruptions on student achievement in mathematics and science. Using mixed-effects models, we estimate deviations from pre-pandemic trends, adjusting for demographic and school-level factors. We find that average achievement declined by 0.11 standard deviations globally, with longer school closures associated with larger losses. Disadvantaged groups—including low performers, girls, and linguistic minorities—experienced greater setbacks, reaching up to 0.23 standard deviations. These findings reveal a persistent global learning crisis and highlight the urgent need for targeted policy responses to address educational inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic.

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