Bayesian Prior Probability Distributions for Internal Dosimetry

Authors:
  • WIW.C. Inkret
    W.C. Inkret
  • TLT.T. Little
    T.T. Little
  • HMH.F. Martz
    H.F. Martz
  • MSM.E. Schillaci
    M.E. Schillaci
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Abstract
The problem of choosing a prior distribution for the Bayesian interpretation of measurements (specifically internal dosimetry measurements) is considered using a theoretical analysis and by examining historical tritium and plutonium urine bioassay data from Los Alamos. Two models for the prior probability distribution are proposed: (1) the log-normal distribution, when there is some additional information to determine the scale of the true result, and (2) the 'alpha' distribution (a simplified variant of the gamma distribution) when there is not. These models have been incorporated into version 3 of the Bayesian internal dosimetric code in use at Los Alamos (downloadable from our web site). Plutonium internal dosimetry at Los Alamos is now being done using prior probability distribution parameters determined self-consistently from population averages of Los Alamos data.